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41.
Distinguishing streamflow trends caused by changes in climate,forest cover,and permafrost in a large watershed in northeastern China 下载免费PDF全文
Understanding how rivers respond to changes in land cover, climate, and subsurface conditions is critical for sustainably managing water resources and ecosystems. In this study, long‐term hydrologic, climate, and satellite data (1973–2012) from the Upper Tahe River watershed (2359 km2) in the Da Hinggan Mountains of northeast China were analysed to quantify the relative hydrologic effects of climate variability (system input) and the combined influences of forest cover change and permafrost thaw (system characteristics) on average annual streamflow (system response) using 2 methods: the sensitivity‐based method and the Kendall–Theil robust line method. The study period was subdivided into a forest harvesting period (1973–1987), a forest stability period (1988–2001), and a forest recovery period (2002–2012). The results indicated that the combined effects of forest harvesting and permafrost thaw on streamflow (+ 47.0 mm) from the forest harvesting period to the forest stability period was approximately twice as large as the effect associated with climate variability (+20.2 mm). Similarly, from the forest stability period to the forest recovery period, the decrease in average annual streamflow attributed to the combined effects of forest recovery and permafrost thaw (?38.0 mm) was much greater than the decrease due to climate variability (?22.2 mm). A simple method was used to separate the distinct impacts of forest cover change and permafrost thaw, but distinguishing these influences is difficult due to changes in surface and subsurface hydrologic connectivity associated with permafrost thaw. The results highlight the need to consider multiple streamflow drivers in future watershed and aquatic ecosystem management. Due to the ecological and hydrological susceptibility to disturbances in the Da Hinggan Mountains, forest harvesting will likely negatively impact ecohydrological processes in this region, and the effects of forest species transition in the forest recovery process should be further investigated. 相似文献
42.
Trend and extreme occurrence of precipitation in a mid‐latitude Eurasian steppe watershed at various time scales 下载免费PDF全文
Xixi Wang Xiaomin Yang Tingxi Liu Fengling Li Ruizhong Gao Limin Duan Yanyun Luo 《水文研究》2014,28(22):5547-5560
The confounding effects of step change invalidate the stationarity assumption of commonly used trend analysis methods such as the Mann–Kendall test technique, so previous studies have failed to explain inconsistencies between detected trends and observed large precipitation anomalies. The objectives of this study were to (1) formulate a trend analysis approach that considers nonstationarity due to step changes, (2) use this approach to detect trends and extreme occurrences of precipitation in a mid‐latitude Eurasian steppe watershed in North China, and (3) examine how runoff responds to precipitation trends in the study watershed. Our results indicate that annual precipitation underwent a marginal step jump around 1995. The significant annual downward trend after 1994 was primarily due to a decrease in summer rainfall; other seasons exhibited no significant precipitation trends. At a monthly scale, July rainfall after 1994 exhibited a significant downward trend, whereas precipitation in other months had no trend. The percentage of wet days also underwent a step jump around 1994 following a significant decreasing trend, although the precipitation intensity exhibited neither a step change nor any significant trend. However, both low‐frequency and high‐frequency precipitation events in the study watershed occurred more often after than before 1994; probably as either a result or an indicator of climate change. In response to these precipitation changes, the study watershed had distinctly different precipitation‐runoff relationships for observed annual precipitations of less than 300 mm, between 300 and 400 mm, and greater than 400 mm. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
43.
Shao Ting Qin Chuanjie Duan Huiguo Yuan Dengyue Wen Zhengyong Wang Jun Ge Fanglan 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2018,36(6):2358-2367
Journal of Oceanology and Limnology - Shifting the feeding time for fish from daytime to nighttime could alter their digestive behavior, disturb their metabolism, and may affect immune-related... 相似文献
44.
Surface roughness and slope gradient are two important factors influencing soil erosion. The objective of this study was to investigate the interaction of surface roughness and slope gradient in controlling soil loss from sloping farmland due to water erosion on the Loess Plateau, China. Following the surface features of sloping farmland in the plateau region, we manually prepared rough surfaces using four tillage practices (contour drilling, artificial digging, manual hoeing, and contour plowing), with a smooth surface as the control measure. Five slope gradients (3°, 5°, 10°, 15°, and 20°) and two rainfall intensities (60 and 90 mm/hr) were considered in the artificial rainfall simulation experiment. The results showed that the runoff volume and sediment yield increased with increasing slope gradient under the same tillage treatment. At gentle slope gradients (e.g., 3° and 5°), the increase in surface roughness prevented the runoff and sediment production, that is, the surface roughness reduced the positive effect of slope gradient on the runoff volume and sediment yield to a certain extent. At steep slope gradients, however, the enhancing effect of slope gradient on soil erosion gradually increased and surpassed the reduction effect of surface roughness. This study reveals the existence of a critical slope gradient that influences the interaction of surface roughness and slope gradient in controlling soil erosion on sloping farmland. If the slope gradient is equal to or less than the critical value, an increase in surface roughness would decrease soil erosion. Otherwise, the increase in surface roughness would be ineffective for preventing soil erosion. The critical slope gradient would be smaller under higher rainfall intensity. These findings are helpful for us to understand the process of soil erosion and relevant for supporting soil and water conservation in the Loess Plateau region of China. 相似文献
45.
46.
Journal of Geographical Sciences - Lake ice phenology is considered a sensitive indicator of regional climate change. We utilized time series information of this kind extracted from a series of... 相似文献
47.
Generation of continuous surface soil moisture dataset using combined optical and thermal infrared images 下载免费PDF全文
Surface soil moisture (SSM) is a critical variable for understanding water and energy flux between the atmosphere and the Earth's surface. An easy to apply algorithm for deriving SSM time series that primarily uses temporal parameters derived from simulated and in situ datasets has recently been reported. This algorithm must be assessed for different biophysical and atmospheric conditions by using actual geostationary satellite images. In this study, two currently available coarse‐scale SSM datasets (microwave and reanalysis product) and aggregated in situ SSM measurements were implemented to calibrate the time‐invariable coefficients of the SSM retrieval algorithm for conditions in which conventional observations are rare. These coefficients were subsequently used to obtain SSM time series directly from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) images over the study area of a well‐organized soil moisture network named REMEDHUS in Spain. The results show a high degree of consistency between the estimated and actual SSM time series values when using the three SSM dataset‐calibrated time‐invariable coefficients to retrieve SSM, with coefficients of determination (R2) varying from 0.304 to 0.534 and root mean square errors ranging from 0.020 m3/m3 to 0.029 m3/m3. Further evaluation with different land use types results in acceptable debiased root mean square errors between 0.021 m3/m3 and 0.048 m3/m3 when comparing the estimated MSG pixel‐scale SSM with in situ measurements. These results indicate that the investigated method is practical for deriving time‐invariable coefficients when using publicly accessed coarse‐scale SSM datasets, which is beneficial for generating continuous SSM dataset at the MSG pixel scale. 相似文献
48.
A timescale decomposed threshold regression(TSDTR) downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall(SCESR) is described by using long-term observed station rainfall data and NOAA ERSST data. It makes use of two distinct regression downscaling models corresponding to the interannual and interdecadal rainfall variability of SCESR.The two models are developed based on the partial least squares(PLS) regression technique, linking SCESR to SST modes in preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Specifically, using the datasets in the calibration period 1915–84, the variability of SCESR and SST are decomposed into interannual and interdecadal components. On the interannual timescale, a threshold PLS regression model is fitted to interannual components of SCESR and March SST patterns by taking account of the modulation of negative and positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). On the interdecadal timescale, a standard PLS regression model is fitted to the relationship between SCESR and preceding November SST patterns. The total rainfall prediction is obtained by the sum of the outputs from both the interannual and interdecadal models. Results show that the TSDTR downscaling approach achieves reasonable skill in predicting the observed rainfall in the validation period 1985–2006, compared to other simpler approaches. This study suggests that the TSDTR approach,considering different interannual SCESR-SST relationships under the modulation of PDO phases, as well as the interdecadal variability of SCESR associated with SST patterns, may provide a new perspective to improve climate predictions. 相似文献
49.
基于ECMWF、JMA、T639、WRF四个数值模式2012年6月1日—9月30日地面气温3—60 h预报资料和郑州加密自动站资料,利用多模式集合平均(EMN)、消除偏差集合平均(BREM)、加权消除偏差集合(WBREM)及多模式超级集合(SUP)4种方法,对2012年8月29日—9月27日郑州城区11个站点地面逐3 h气温进行多模式集成预报试验,采用绝对误差对预报结果进行检验评估,结果表明:在30天的预报期内,BREM、WBREM及SUP对于大多数站气温预报效果有明显改善,而EMN方案对11个站预报效果改善则不太明显;4种方案中,BREM和WBREM预报效果相对较好且稳定,各个站上3—60 h预报的绝对误差均在2℃附近或以下;SUP方案虽然对个别站预报误差较低,但是其预报效果并不稳定,一些站点的个别预报时效误差大于2℃。对于郑州观测站的气温预报而言,4种集成方案20时起报的气温误差明显小于08时起报的误差,并且20时起报的SUP集成方案绝对误差明显小于其他方案的绝对误差。总体而言,BREM、WBREM及SUP三种集成方案能够给郑州精细化预报业务提供较好的参考。 相似文献
50.